2026–2027
PhD Research Grant, ReCIPE Programme
Centre for Economic Policy Research and UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office. Earthquakes and communal conflict in Indonesia’s seismic zone
Billy Tulungen
PhD Candidate in Economics
Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business
Universitas Indonesia
Development Economics · Urban & Regional Economics · Political Economy
I am a PhD candidate in Economics at Universitas Indonesia, working in development economics and urban and regional economics. My dissertation, Shaking Land and Shaking Lives, asks how large seismic shocks reshape social order, household behaviour, and local economies in Indonesian villages. The first chapter is supported by a research grant from the ReCIPE Programme (CEPR and UK FCDO). I also work as a teaching assistant in the graduate econometrics sequence at Universitas Indonesia, across the master’s and doctoral programmes.
Alongside my academic work I have spent a decade in Indonesian public procurement, in provincial government roles and as a nationally certified facilitator, competency assessor, and advisor.
Selected research
Motive Without Mobilization? Earthquakes and Communal Conflict in Indonesia
Damage-level shaking cuts reported communal conflict by 1.5 percentage points, yet theft rises by 5.8 points on the same villages in the same waves. Disasters appear to change the composition of local violence rather than its level.
Faith after the Shock: Earthquakes, Religious Expenditure, and the Insurance Value of Religion in Indonesia
Whether religion functions as informal insurance against uninsured risk is usually tested on stated religiosity. This project instead uses household expenditure in rupiah, combined with village-level earthquake exposure, to separate the income effect from the club-good and coping channels.
Public procurement
Alongside my academic work I have worked in Indonesian public procurement since 2015, in provincial government roles and, since 2018, nationally as a certified facilitator, competency assessor, and advisor.
Current
2024–
Teaching Assistant, graduate econometrics
Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia
2025–
Competency Assessor, LSP LKPP
Professional Certification Body of the National Public Procurement Agency